Entries by lbernut

Trading Journal 20160203

Trading Journal 20160203 1. Trading Journal 2. Tip of the day Trading Journal As explained in a previous post, Shorts entered after a squeeze offer better visibility and have higher probability of success. So, the alert pad came back quite full. Most of the signals are frequent flyers on the short side. Shorts are like a glasses […]

Why is humility an essential trait of profitable short-sellers ?

January 2016 was a difficult month for investors. According to Barry Ritholtz:s, 93% of investors lost money. Feeling helpless and crushed while watching your investments melt away is a terrible feeling that takes a devastating toll on emotional capital. There can’t possibly be anything worse feeling, except perhaps a skill aspiring short sellers have to […]

What are your best short selling ideas right now?

Answer by Laurent Bernut: This is answer to a question on Quora.com This is a novice question that lead to two unprofitable biases: fairness bias and confirmation bias When new to the fascinating short world, we want to short overvalued stocks. They believe that this has gone too far and that it “should” go down […]

Trading Journal 2016/01/20

This is a test. If You find value in this trading journal, please let us know. If there are topics You would like to see covered, please comment and suggest. This journal exists only because You find it useful. So, help us create something You need. 1. No signals today 2. Trading activity Last night. Risk at this […]

Short-selling: “Come with me if You want to live”

The 30s’ are usually remembered as the “Great Depression era”. Yet, from 1932 to 1937, despite abject poverty on main street, what was left of Wall Street enjoyed an exceptionally resilient bull market. The government had found a new tool called pump priming, inspired from an economist (only they can get away with such awful […]

Why do 100% of economists say that it’s hard to predict stock prices?

Answer by Laurent Bernut: “Forecasting is a difficult business, particularly when it is about the future”, Yogi Berra, modern American philosopher Economists are extraordinarily helpful at predicting … the past. They will give today a savant explanation as to why their predictions for last week did not pan out. Economists gather some attention during bear markets […]

The Habit of Short-Selling

Selling short is not antipatriotic. It most certainly is not a hedge to Long. The only commonality with art is that 90% of artists starve. Short-selling is not some shadow conspiracy undermining the economy. No short sellers seats on any board on sinking ships. Short-selling is none of that. Short-selling is a habit, just like […]