Round 2: synchronous short selling signals across multiple asset classes

/0 Comments/in /by

1. Trading journal

2. Tip of the day: Triage, kick out the free loaders and never trade laggards

1. Trading journal: Round 2, time to short again and don’t complain there aren’t enough short ideas

This is the big day, time to get back in the ring. Short squeeze came and went. Now, stocks are rolling over again. This is quite an unusual to do so though. Roll-over usually happen over the course of a week. This time, it’s different (just love to say that to confuse people).Roll over happens across asset classes on the same day. In fact, there were so many they had to be split in two files. It took more than an hour and almost half a bottle of Prosecco to process them. So, don’t complain there aren’t enough short selling ideas.

So, “is it the right time to dip our toes in the water ?” When everyone is buying, short selling seems like a bad idea. By the same token, when everyone around the world, across asset classes is selling, does it sound like a good idea to go out and buy ?

If You want details on any signal, send a mail or a comment and i will post it with comments.

All signals are ranked by size assuming a 0.10% risk per trade. I placed a whole bunch of orders. The priority algo was as follows:

  1. Free up some space and kick out free loaders: see Tip of the day
  2. Top-up of existing positions: SPY, EWL, EWH, EPP, PHO, VWO. Ignore EWA, IDV and TDIV already fully loaded or expensive borrow
  3. Enter qualified trend reversals: we have designed a neat trend reversal qualification test some time ago. This is as early and as safe as a trend reversal can be detected. So, anchor positions with minimum risk per trade very near the top
  4. Enter trending shorts by size and lot numbers: the bigger the size and the higher the number of lots the better. High lot number means easier partial exit

Tip of the day:

Triage:

  1. Make space, get rid of stale positions: multiple simultaneous positions means something happened in the markets. So, the first thing to do is to get rid of the positions that did not react. Those that do not react are likely to hurt when the market moves the other way. For example, during this sell-off, some positions held their ground. Two of them even went up. Fine, OUT now. Yeah but the thesis, the long term prospect, blah blah blah. Sure, when ready to cooperate, we will talk about it, but for now OUT. This frees out some resources to more promising ideas
  2. Weight ranking: position sizing algo is fixed fraction position sizing of equity at risk -0.10%. So, for the same risk budget, the bigger the position size, the lower the volatility. Yeah, but i like the thesis on bio stocks. Great, they are too volatile still, so wait until they are ready for a serious relationship

Free Loaders:

Managers often fail to meet their objectives not because of spectacular blow-ups, but because of the drag of poor performing stocks. So, relentlessly kick out stocks that do not react or perform poorly. Here is a simple powerful way to reframe the situation

If You owned a building, would You allow tenants to stay rent free ? No, You expect them to pay their rent. Apply the same discipline to stocks and performance will mechanically improve. Here is a simple elegant “how to” article

http://alphasecurecapital.com/the-game-of-two-halves-an-eleg…

Never trade laggards

Brokers and fund managers have this constant fear of missing the boat (fear of missing out or FOMO). So, they have come out with this brilliant idea to round up thematic stocks and identify laggards. The basic thought is “This is the next…”. IBM is not the next Apple, Squarespace is not the next Facebook. Laggards are just left overs

The best remedy is to think that the boat You just missed is not an ocean liner but a Vaporetto. There will be another one shortly. The market will give You another chance

Trading Journal 20160203

/15 Comments/in , /by

Trading Journal 20160203

1. Trading Journal

2. Tip of the day

Trading Journal

As explained in a previous post, Shorts entered after a squeeze offer better visibility and have higher probability of success. So, the alert pad came back quite full. Most of the signals are frequent flyers on the short side.

Shorts are like a glasses of wine, they tend to be depleted, so they require regular top-ups. Let:s not complicate things here.

Here is how to read the above table

  1. Stop Loss: it has a dual function, one obviously to put a quick end to a bad trade for now. The second function of a stop loss is to calculate a position size. Those are isometric staircase stop loss using a multiple of ATR 2.5 or 2.6
  2. Limit: Entry is a choice, exit is a necessity. This has been severely back-tested and reinforced in real life trading: this strategy works best over time if we do not chase stocks. Stop Loss and Limit are used to calculate position size
  3. ATR: Average True Range 20 days, simple average.
  4. Weight: suggested position size. This is a Fixed Fractional Position Sizing method or equity at risk that assumes -0.10% risk per trade. This is a clean simple multiplier
  5. Risk Adjustment: this is the -0.10% factor
  6. Equity at risk: position sizies are rounded to the nearest lot and this gives residual equity at risk
  7. Ranking order: the bigger the better. For a same risk budget, the trade suggesting the largest size comes first. There is no “qualitative/fundamental” assessment here. Size is a primarily a reflection of the volatility signature

For the record, I have placed orders on some of those ETFs. I am not suggesting You should buy/sell/short sell or buy to cover any of those signals.

As You can see, the numbers at the right side of the charts are the same as the ones on the table. In fact, I go through every chart and write those numbers.

SJNK is another junk bond ETF. It has low volatility and clean trend. Those are rare and nice shorts: bearish calm

On the Long side, the information is below the swing point. Interestingly enough, the algorithm flagged a partial exit shortly before this re-entry. Re-entries are possible only after a partial exit has been performed.You

The logic is simple: take risk off the table before adding some. Adding to a position with open risk compounds risk. It works until it does not

 

Tip of the day

Whatever asset class and time frame, we all trade the same thing: risk. So, the first order of business after entry is to reduce risk.

Trading Journal 2016/01/20

/2 Comments/in , /by

This is a test. If You find value in this trading journal, please let us know. If there are topics You would like to see covered, please comment and suggest. This journal exists only because You find it useful. So, help us create something You need.

1. No signals today

2. Trading activity Last night. Risk at this stage of a sell-off

3. General considerations:

  1. The vaporetto has left, there will be one coming soon: don’t short now, wait for the squeeze
  2. TIP of the day: counter-interintuitive truths about crowded shorts and performance during sell-offs (must read for novice short sellers)
  3. Position for the squeeze and beyond

Trading

Last night there was another Short EPOL, the ETF for Poland.

Here is how to read the chart:

Direction: Short. Comment: Trend is clearly fast bearish with low volatility. That trade has packed a lot of octane (reward to risk / holding period)

Stop Loss: 18.18

Target price: 15.97

Max Risk Per Trade suggested: -0.39% ( per convexity algo, not the standard -0.10% that will give readers a clean multiple). That is 95% of risk per trade

Trading Journal

RIsk: I elected to allocate -0.29% of risk. Risk is a number, not a dissertation. These are the reasons:

Pros:

  1. This is the third tranche. There is embedded risk free P&L of 0.53% that gives some cushion.
  2. More importantly, the lot size is such that only a small move is necessary to be able to cover a large portion and subsequently break even. It needs to generate 0.08% in order to reach break even level
  3. Current position before trade is getting small. It needs to be replenished

Cons:

  1. Trend is maturing. Borrow cost has increased accordingly. This is the third tranche in less than 4 months. Time for a break maybe ?
  2. Correlation increasing across asset classes, synchronous shorting is dangerous, so tone down the risk, take off -0.05%
  3. Rebound was small in duration and magnitude. It may be a false positive. In those fast trend it is either mid section, either before the rebound, take off -0.05%

Verdict: take the trade, but because of synchronous sell-off, reduce risk

3. General market considerations

If You haven’t shorted yet, it is too late. Vaporetto has left. Do not jump onboard now, You’ ll drown and feel stupid. Be patient, keep your powder dry.

Time is better spent observing the markets and observing your thoughts. Journal your thoughts. Observe the monkey on your shoulder.

Homework: this is a great time to get ready for the next campaign: (I have a system so I don’t need to do this anymore), but here is what I would look for: the weakest stocks that are not heavily shorted. Those are the stocks that Long holders sell.

Now is the time to think about the upcoming squeeze and beyond

The probability of a squeeze increases day by day. It is about time for a bit of mouth flapping. They call it reassuring the markets these days.

When they turned off free monetary booze, they expected a bit of weening turbulence, some whining, so no big deal so far.

Now that the vaporetto has left, let’s wait. When the squeeze comes, cover positions (half if You don’t have a system), or break even level if You use a similar equation as mine.

There is no need to cover it all. Markets have turned bearish, so the idea is to cover a portion, ride the squeeze and then slap another tranche.

Roadmap

When the squeeze is over, I will gross-up my leverage. At 127% Gross, -62% net, -22% net at risk today, I am under-participating. The idea was to start the year slow, build some performance cushion and gross up gradually. Bad idea to start sprinting at the beginning of a marathon.

So, when the squeeze comes, net at risk should drop to sub -10%. After the squeeze, gross up so that the net at risk be around -50/60%. This should be a gross of roughly 180-200% .

Now, life is usually what happens when You had other plans.

TIP of the Day: counterintuitive truth about short selling

You will usually find an inverse correlation with borrow utilisation level and performance in sell-offs. In other words, stuff that is heavily shorted all year round holds its ground during sell-off. Money is not made shorting the same stocks everyone shorts: Elvis has already left the building.

Money is made spotting the stocks that are not heavily shorted but underperform the markets. It makes counterintuitve sense: the market participants selling are Long holders selling their positions. Information has not traveled yet

These are the guys we will stalk, these are the guys whose coat we will tail. They are going through a process of grief: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, depression and acceptance. I quantified the process a few years ago. In fact, it was my first public speaking opportunity.

More about this and the Kubler Ross grief model applied to the markets on my website at www.alphasecurecapital.com . Please subscribe, It keeps me motivated. It is free and has resources for committed traders.

Conversely, make a note of the heavily shorted stuff that outperforms or holds its ground. This is squeeze box material where all the structural short sellers go impale themselves.

Short-selling: “Come with me if You want to live”

/0 Comments/in /by

The 30s’ are usually remembered as the “Great Depression era”. Yet, from 1932 to 1937, despite abject poverty on main street, what was left of Wall Street enjoyed an exceptionally resilient bull market. The government had found a new tool called pump priming, inspired from an economist (only they can get away with such awful track records on the markets) named John Maynard Keynes. The government loved it and they feel asleep on the button. Sounds familiar ?

We have enjoyed a synchronous long smooth bull market. It has been good to all participants. Yet, no bull market has ever boosted anyone’s IQ. If anything, this Fed sponsored bull market has made participants fat and complacent: low interest rates pick up the tab anyway. Now, that the Fed has decided to tighten the purse, things may get a bit more turbulent out there.

Short-selling is the most underrated skill on the markets. It is neither a nefarious conspiracy nor an anti-patriotic gesture. It is a rare, versatile and immensely valuable craft that will ensure your survival in the most turbulent times. Markets have dropped by 50% twice in the last decade. If You would like to retire on returns rather than stories, then this is something worth learning.

Why You should listen to me ?

“Too many people look at “what is” from a position of “what should be”, Bruce Lee, Chinese philosopher

come-with-me-if-you-want-to-liveThese days, everybody seems to have an opinion on short-selling. Short sellers seem to proliferate faster than syphilis on a ship. I cannot but feel humbled in such illustrious company. I have been in the alternative space for 15 years (hedge funds and large institutions). For the past 8 years, I was a dedicated short-seller with Fidelity Japan.

My mandate was to underperform the inverse of the longest bear market in modern history: Japan equities. Every day, I woke up -100% net short, having to do worse than the worst market on earth, good morning. These days, it feels somewhat refreshing to be around -50% net short.

While every other freshly minted guru has some elaborate speech about how short selling should be done, I have earned my short selling-skills the hard way and I have the scars to prove it. It is all lovely and cosy but the only tiny difference is that in the real world You can’t hit the reset button after Game Over. So, Come with me if You want to live

Why should You master the craft of short-selling ?

There are three obvious reasons:

  1. The secret to raising AUM is to perform when no-one else does. So, if You are a professional in the alternative space, just remember that when it is Babylon on the markets, investors will worship the Jamaican Prophet His Almighty Bob Marley
  2. Markets go up and markets go down: why not profit from both ? It takes a little more skill, that’s all
  3. A stronger version of yourself: In the world of short-selling, the market works against You. Either it will forge excellence out of You, either it will crush You. It is that simple. So, even if You decide to stay Long Only, learning to sell short will undoubtedly make You a formidable market participant.

Why do most people fail at short selling ?

“In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not”, Yogi Berra, American Philosopher

Market participants approach short selling the same way they approach long buying. They do their analysis, watch some of it being validated and then happily conclude it is just the inverse of going long. That all works well until it is time to put theory into practice.

A couple of short-squeezes that would turn Barry White‘s rich baritone into Barry Gibb‘s high falsetto, a couple of quarters of humbling losses down the road, and they conclude that short-selling is dangerous. What they do not realise is that on the short-side, the market does not cooperate, stock picking is just not good enough. Market participants fail to understand the dynamics and the mechanics of short selling.

On the long side, picking stocks is sufficient. The market does all the heavy lifting thereafter. Stocks grow bigger, everything works in tandem: they contribute more both in terms of alpha and exposures. Losers shrink and hurt less.

On the short side, the market works against You. Winning big literally means watching your portfolio shrink like a magic skin:  You have smaller victories when successful and bigger problems when unsuccessful.

Picking stocks is just the start. The real work of extracting alpha comes after that. This is hard, frustrating work, when it works at all. This is why people keep looking for structural shorts all the time, something they can sell short and throw away the key. Structural shorts are like market gurus, they are everywhere. Profitable structural shorts are more like market wizards, good luck finding one. They are so rare they make Big Foot look like a frequent guest on the Saturday Night Live show. Welcome to the mechanics of short selling: scarce poor quality borrow leading to short squeezes, prohibitive interest fees and dividends payable.

The MMA of short-selling

Martial arts are a good analogy for the markets. If Long only was a fighting sport, it would be English boxing, Queensburry rules. If Short selling was a sport, it would be MMA, Vale Tudo. Floyd Mayweather is the undefeated champion of the world. He is a solid contender for the title of the best boxer of all times. Yet, should he face Conor McGregor in the octagon, MMA style, he would be dismantled, dismembered and disfigured long before the first round bell has a chance to save him.

On the Long side, all You have to do is pick stocks and the market does the rest of the work for You.

On the short side, not only do You have to do that, but You will have to master those skills:

  1. position sizing: successful shorts shrink, unsuccessful ones hurt fast. Learn to size position so that they may contribute if successful, but not wound if not
  2. Milk your ideas: successful shorts shrink. So, it is not enough to find them, You must constantly work at them to extract alpha
  3. Consistent idea generation: a healthy short book shrinks, so You need to come up with at least twice as many ideas as the Long side just to keep up
  4. Market timing: two certainties in life: death and short squeezes a la Barry Gibbs. Use the latter for trading purposes before the former catches up
  5. Superior understanding of risk: risk is a number, not a pretty paragraph at the end of a dissertation. Short sellers naturally develop a keen understanding of hedges and probabilities.
  6. Process versus outcome thinking: if investment is a process then automation is a logical conclusion
  7. Mental fortitude: would You like to be the iceman on the trading floor when everyone else panics ? After a while, bull markets, bear markets, they all taste like chicken

The good news is that short-selling is a skill. It can be acquired, perfected and expanded. It is also a versatile and valuable one. Remember this: with this skill, You can go Long without breaking a sweat, but can Long-Only do your job with the same ease

How does it work in practice ?

Short selling is a high pressure sport. Those who have only gone Long will suddenly be confronted with unfamiliar levels of stress. Volatility, uncertainty, fear, stress, pressure constrict the thinking brain (prefrontal cortex). Whatever mental bandwidth is left will be thankful for clear, unambiguous and simple instructions. So, do not be fooled by the apparent simplicity zen appearance of the charts. It took years to mature and thousands of lines of code to come to this level of clarity. In time, I hope You will learn to appreciate the gift of simplicity.

The above chart is designed to be intuitive.

  1. Price Bar colour: Down trends are coloured tomato. Uptrends are coloured olive. Back in 2012, the original name of the strategy was Olives & Tomatoes. (no wonder it initially failed to garner traction in my venerable institution…)
  2. Swings: swing high bars are coloured in green with a green annotation above the price bar. Swing low bars are coloured red annotation below the chart
  3. Annotations above/below swing bars:
    1. Olive (above) / Tomato (below):
      1. Stop Loss: Single number above/below all annotations
      2. Target price: target price is a risk management level. It is not an expression of fair value. Life is unfair, so are the markets, get over it
      3. #ATR: Average True Range [20 bars]
    2. Mauve (never trust a Frenchman with the colour code): Remaining balance. When engaged in a position, the algo calculates the quantity to exit so as to break even on the trade thereafter and prints remaining balance
  4. Dotted Green/Red Line: isometric staircase stop loss. Stop losses are reset for all positions. Those who fail to honour them will be unapologetically de-friended: may You be chained, eagles devour your liver and Justin Bieber fill your ears
  5. Black triangles: represent entries. Stacked triangles mean single entry, multiple exits. Above/Below is a precious roadmap that contain all the values for the journey ahead
    1. Ceiling/Floor: this is the equivalent of stop loss.
    2. LoB: is the equivalent of a Limit or Better price. Do not chase stocks past that point as probability recedes thereafter
  6. Red/Green inverted triangles: mean unprofitable/profitable exits. Stacked triangles mean final exits of multiple positions
  7. Moving Average: we all love our Christmas trees. This has no bearing on the strategy, but users have found it easier to anchor their beliefs around a long term moving average.

Charts have all the essential information You need to know to go on your journey: bullish/bearish underlying trend and exit roadmaps. It is kept simple by design. For example, position sizes have been removed in this version. They are calculated separately in the alert table. It all comes down to essentialist philosophy: focus on the essential few and let go of the trivial many. With this tool, You have a sustainable fighting chance against the markets.

Trading Journal

The above chart translates into real trading: multiple entries and exits. Green column is entry. Salmon is partial exit and grey is final exit. As soon as a position is entered, the first order of business is to take some money off the table so as to reduce risk.

Above is JNK, the ETF for high-yield bonds. When the first trade was taken, the chrematocoulrophony (chremato: money, phone: voice, coulro: clown) or consensus on The Street was talking about “Buy the dips”, “value hunting”. These days, everyone talks about the implosion of the high yield space. Bottom line, the hardest trades often offer the best rewards. Stick to your system.

Alert table

The table contains the same information as charts, only in a more compact numerical form.

Types of Alert:

  1. Long Limit / Short Limit:
  2. Profit Taking: A swing has been recorded and the market is about to rebound/drop so time to take risk off the table. Exits are executed at market price: entry is a choice, exit is a necessity
  3. Trend reversal: Trend has changed from Bull to Bear and vice versa. Close open positions at market
  4. Stop Loss: remember the curse of Prometheus: liver may regrow, but Justin Bieber that is rough
  5. Weight: is derived from a fixed fractional position sizing method set at -0.10% (equity at risk method) for simplicity;s sake

That’s it, everyone is set. Happy trading. Two things, I trade the same signals that are shared on the website. Call it front-running or camaraderie. Rather than 5 pages of lawyerly bizantyne disclaimer, one sentence suffices: You are responsible for your own choices.

Conclusion      

“The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining”, JFK, modern mystery

Short-selling is a habit. It takes time, mistakes, patience to unlearn bad habits and form new beneficial neural pathways. The best time to do so is when urgency forces focus, but not critical enough to be a question of life and death.

The Fed has ended its life-support, which means more turbulence ahead. This is a good time to learn how to ride volatility with serene equanimity.

Daily #Markets Signals

/0 Comments/in , /by

Our sincere apologies for the long silence. We were immersed in a fascinating auto-trade project. It has been a wonderful watchmaking experience. “If investment is a process, then automation is a logical conclusion”. We will come back with solid content soon.

  1. FTASE (Athens) Bearish Strength 2015-06-08.png
  2. CAC Bearish Strength 2015-07-06.png
  3. BELSTK Bearish Strength 2015-07-06.png
  4. AMX Bearish Strength 2015-07-06.png
  5. TUSISE Bullish Strength 2015-06-08.png
  • If investment is a process, then automation is a logical conclusion
  • Complexity is a form of laziness
  • Great traders are not smarter, they have smarter trading habits
  • If investment is a process, then automation is a logical conclusion
  • If You are interested in short-selling, trading systems, position sizing, trading psychology, visit us at: www.alphasecurecapital.com
  • Bullish weakness: Longer-term trend is bullish. There has been some temporary weakness, but the uptrend is likely to resume
  • Bearish strength: Longer-term trend is bearish. There has been some temporary rally, but the downtrend is likely to resume
  • Volatility Channels (Horizontal dotted lines) : Markets often retest swings. This is a volatility buffer to allow wiggle room.
  • Volatility Channel: Think of the other side of a volatility channel of the distance it would take to close half the position to break even if the remainder was to hit the stop loss
  • #n%: Think of it as a rudimentary equity at risk position sizing. It is 1% divided by the distance from the day the swing is recorded to the volatility channel
  • Disclaimer: this is neither a solicitation, nor an investment advice


 

 

 

Weekly ETF signals

/0 Comments/in , , /by

: Our sincere apologies for the long silence. We were immersed in a fascinating auto-trade project. It has been a wonderful watchmaking experience. “If investment is a process, then automation is a logical conclusion”. We will come back with solid content soon.

  1. SJNK Weekly Bearish Strength 2015-07-06.png
  2. RSX Weekly Bearish Strength 2015-07-06.png
  3. EWZ Weekly Bearish Strength 2015-07-06.png
  4. EWP Weekly Bearish Strength 2015-07-06.png
  5. EWC Weekly Bearish Strength 2015-07-06.png
  6. ERUS Weekly Bearish Strength 2015-07-06.png
  7. DLS Weekly Bearish Strength 2015-07-06.png
  • If investment is a process, then automation is the logical conclusion
  • Complexity is a form of laziness
  • Great traders are not smarter, they have smarter trading habits
  • If investment is a process, then automation is a logical conclusion
  • If You are interested in short-selling, trading systems, position sizing, trading psychology, visit us at: www.alphasecurecapital.com
  • Bullish weakness: Longer-term trend is bullish. There has been some temporary weakness, but the uptrend is likely to resume
  • Bearish strength: Longer-term trend is bearish. There has been some temporary rally, but the downtrend is likely to resume
  • Volatility Channels (Horizontal dotted lines) : Markets often retest swings. This is a volatility buffer to allow wiggle room.
  • Volatility Channel: Think of the other side of a volatility channel of the distance it would take to close half the position to break even if the remainder was to hit the stop loss
  • #n%: Think of it as a rudimentary equity at risk position sizing. It is 1% divided by the distance from the day the swing is recorded to the volatility channel
  • Disclaimer: this is neither a solicitation, nor an investment advice

Daily #ETF signals

/0 Comments/in , /by

Thought of the day: “Sometimes by kising a battle, You find a new way to win the war”, Donald Trump, Happy Birthday

  1. VXX Bearish strength
  2. SCZ Bullish Weakness
  3. JKD Bullish Weakness
  4. IYF Bullish Weakness
  5. EWJ Bullish Weakness
  6. DFJ Bullish Weakness
  • Complexity is a form of laziness
  • Great traders are not smarter, they have smarter trading habits
  • If investment is a process, then automation is a logical conclusion
  • If You are interested in short-selling, trading systems, position sizing, trading psychology, visit us at: www.alphasecurecapital.com
  • Bullish weakness: Longer-term trend is bullish. There has been some temporary weakness, but the uptrend is likely to resume
  • Bearish strength: Longer-term trend is bearish. There has been some temporary rally, but the downtrend is likely to resume
  • Volatility Channels (Horizontal dotted lines) : Markets often retest swings. This is a volatility buffer to allow wiggle room.
  • Volatility Channel: Think of the other side of a volatility channel of the distance it would take to close half the position to break even if the remainder was to hit the stop loss
  • #n%: Think of it as a rudimentary equity at risk position sizing. It is 1% divided by the distance from the day the swing is recorded to the volatility channel
  • Disclaimer: this is neither a solicitation, nor an investment advice

 

Weekly #ETF signals

/0 Comments/in , /by

Thought of the day: “Sometimes by kising a battle, You find a new way to win the war”, Donald Trump, Happy Birthday

  1. PFF Weekly Bearish Strength
  2. EPU Weekly Bearish Strength
  • Complexity is a form of laziness
  • Great traders are not smarter, they have smarter trading habits
  • If investment is a process, then automation is a logical conclusion
  • If You are interested in short-selling, trading systems, position sizing, trading psychology, visit us at: www.alphasecurecapital.com
  • Bullish weakness: Longer-term trend is bullish. There has been some temporary weakness, but the uptrend is likely to resume
  • Bearish strength: Longer-term trend is bearish. There has been some temporary rally, but the downtrend is likely to resume
  • Volatility Channels (Horizontal dotted lines) : Markets often retest swings. This is a volatility buffer to allow wiggle room.
  • Volatility Channel: Think of the other side of a volatility channel of the distance it would take to close half the position to break even if the remainder was to hit the stop loss
  • #n%: Think of it as a rudimentary equity at risk position sizing. It is 1% divided by the distance from the day the swing is recorded to the volatility channel
  • Disclaimer: this is neither a solicitation, nor an investment advice

Weekly #Markets signals

/0 Comments/in /by

Thought of the day: “Sometimes by kising a battle, You find a new way to win the war”, Donald Trump, Happy Birthday

  1. CRO Weekly Bullish weakness
  • Complexity is a form of laziness
  • Great traders are not smarter, they have smarter trading habits
  • If investment is a process, then automation is a logical conclusion
  • If You are interested in short-selling, trading systems, position sizing, trading psychology, visit us at: www.alphasecurecapital.com
  • Bullish weakness: Longer-term trend is bullish. There has been some temporary weakness, but the uptrend is likely to resume
  • Bearish strength: Longer-term trend is bearish. There has been some temporary rally, but the downtrend is likely to resume
  • Volatility Channels (Horizontal dotted lines) : Markets often retest swings. This is a volatility buffer to allow wiggle room.
  • Volatility Channel: Think of the other side of a volatility channel of the distance it would take to close half the position to break even if the remainder was to hit the stop loss
  • #n%: Think of it as a rudimentary equity at risk position sizing. It is 1% divided by the distance from the day the swing is recorded to the volatility channel
  • Disclaimer: this is neither a solicitation, nor an investment advice


 

 

Weekly #Forex signals

/0 Comments/in , /by

Thought of the day: “Sometimes by kising a battle, You find a new way to win the war”, Donald Trump, Happy Birthday

  1. USDRUB Weekly Bullish Weakness 2015-06-13.png
  2. EURRUB Weekly Bullish Weakness 2015-06-15.png
  3. EURNOK Weekly Bullish Weakness 2015-06-13.png
  • Complexity is a form of laziness
  • Great traders are not smarter, they have smarter trading habits
  • If investment is a process, then automation is a logical conclusion
  • If You are interested in short-selling, trading systems, position sizing, trading psychology, visit us at: www.alphasecurecapital.com
  • Bullish weakness: Longer-term trend is bullish. There has been some temporary weakness, but the uptrend is likely to resume
  • Bearish strength: Longer-term trend is bearish. There has been some temporary rally, but the downtrend is likely to resume
  • Volatility Channels (Horizontal dotted lines) : Markets often retest swings. This is a volatility buffer to allow wiggle room.
  • Volatility Channel: Think of the other side of a volatility channel of the distance it would take to close half the position to break even if the remainder was to hit the stop loss
  • #n%: Think of it as a rudimentary equity at risk position sizing. It is 1% divided by the distance from the day the swing is recorded to the volatility channel
  • Disclaimer: this is neither a solicitation, nor an investment advice